The MLB draft is a weird animal. While all drafts are pretty boring to watch (seriously, why the fuck do we tune in to wait 10 minutes to hear a name called) the MLB draft is easily the worst of them for TV. Before a couple years ago, we were lucky to get to see more than a couple prospects actually show up in studio, and still you get no more than 7 or 8.
Also contributing to the weirdness of the draft is that it probably has the highest percentage of top prospects who won't make it to the show. The MLB draft more than any other has historically been a crap shoot. Scouts will put years into watching prospects and think they have a gem, but if that player burns out, there probably won't be a great deal of surprise. Now of course, this rate of busts has gone down a significant amount in the last 5-10 years (don't have specific numbers) as new ways of scouting players has developed. Specifically the increased presence of sabermetrics in front offices which when paired with the traditional 'by the eye' type scouting will yield more accurate results. (Don't let that shit show movie Trouble with the Curve tell you otherwise, advanced stats and old school scouting CAN get along.)
Anyways, while the draft may be boring TV this is a great and exciting time of year as fans will discover which players will be added to their stable of prospects that will comprise their teams future, or at the least provide valuable trade currency. This year, as a result of failing to sign Phil Bickford, the Blue Jays will have two early picks at #9 and #11. Were going to examine 10 prospects who could go to the Blue Jays with these picks.
First, lets eliminate some prospects. These 5 prospects will almost assuredly not be around when Toronto picks: Brady Aiken, Carlos Rodon, Tyler Kolek, Alex Jackson, and Nick Gordon. Here are 10 prospects that the Blue Jays could look to select. Also, I may add in a few potential reaches just because.
10) Tyler Beede - RHP - Vanderbilt University:
God, imagine if we took Young Beedah? A somewhat obnoxious player, but one who is undeniably talented, Tyler Beede could be in the discussion for one of the Jays top 2 picks. I mean, I seriously doubt it, but it wouldn't be the most shocking thing this club has ever done. Alex Anthopolous was asked about the prospect of selecting Tyler Beede and confirmed that he has signed a consent to re-select form and that he would consider drafting him again. However, what else would he say? "We selected him, offered him all the money, and he spurned us because he's a little prick."? No, I just don't see it happening. I don't actually know if the Jays-Beede relationship is that soured regardless, Tyler Beede has seen is stock drop significantly after being considered a top 5 pick for most of the year. He may even fall out of the first completely. If he's around in the 2nd when the Jays pick, which would be a shock if he was, then I think they would consider him if he was truly the best player left on their board.
As for the scouting report, Keith Law of ESPN (Insiders) describes Beede as having a fastball that sits in the low 90's, occasionally touching 96 and says that he has a curveball that flashes plus and an average change. While definitely talented, Tyler Beede has seen his stock drop over control and makeup concerns. Worst case for Beede is probably a MLB reliever while his ceiling is that of a #3 starter.
Range: Could go as high as #8 to Rockies, could fall to #33 with the Red Sox.
Projected Pick: #17 to the Royals.
Jay's Thoughts: Avoid unless he's there in 2nd and you have the money to sign him.
9) Kyle Freeland - LHP - Evansville:
Kyle Freeland has absolutely dominated the Missouri Valley Conference this season putting up an insane numbers to the tune of 128 K's to 13 BB in 99.1 IP. Regardless, I think Freeland may be an overdraft this year. In reality I think he's around 20-25 among prospects but he should go in the top 10. His medical history (arthroscopic elbow surgery in high school) could be a concern for some teams, but it shouldn't. He hasn't faced the best competition, which contributes to his gaudy numbers, but he does project to have 3 above average pitches. His fastball sits around 90 with the ability to reach 94-95. He has two different sliders which are his best pitches. His change is just average but has the makings of an above average pitch. He will top out as a #4 starter, but may be one of the 5 fastest guys to make it to the majors.
Range: Could go as high as #6 to Seattle, or fall as low as 21 to the Cleveland Baseball team.
Projected Pick: #8 to the Rockies, he is often connected with them.
Jay's Thoughts: Don't expect him to last, and even if he did the fact he's a college arm in a weak conference with only back end stuff will make him a non choice.
8) Max Pentecost - C - Kennesaw State:
The case of Max Pentecost is an interesting one. He is a talent to be sure, but one that I'd deem worthy of a pick between 15-25. However, if all the rumours linking him to the Cubs turn out to be true, he could be off the board long before the Jays ever select. What Pentecost offers to teams will be awfully tempting. He is the best all-around catcher in the draft, and has the potential to develop into a solid OBP player who can hit 15-20 HR's a year. Mixed with his great defense and an ability to stick at C long term, a team could draft him inside the top 10, get him at a discount, and spend that money on prospects who fall due to strong college commitments. Even if he is a reach in the top 10, you can still feel safe you have a long term starter who has the potential to play in a couple All-Star games in his career. His competition faced at Kennesaw State may be suspect, but one of the highest floors in the draft class, at the C position, represents an appealing target for the Jays.
Range: Could go as high as #4 to Cubs or as low as #16 to Arizona.
Projected Pick: #12 to the Brewers who's farm could use a good bet to be a sure thing.
Jay's Thoughts: He will be highly appealing in a system that underwhelms at the C position. He'll be one of their top 5 choices at #9 and #11.
7) Derek Hill - OF - Elk Grove HS (Cali):
Derek Hill will likely be the highest rated High School bat left around the time the Jays select. Keith Law has already made a connection between player and franchise calling him a dark horse. Derek Hill is one of the better defenders in the outfield. With good instincts, a strong arm, and a plus runner, he is a good bet to end up in CF. Hill is much more of a doubles hitter than a HR hitter, and he projects to about a 40 on the 20-80 scale for power. While his dependable defense at a premium position provides value, the bat likely won't be there for a while if at all. If it is he could be a leadoff hitter who provides good defense and 20-30 stolen bases. If he doesn't develop a bat he is likely a AAAA player. Son of former minor league player and current scout Orsino Hill, expect the Jays to look at him, because if they feel they can fix his swing, he could be the successor to Jose Reyes at the top of the order. However, they may feel they have the answer in CF with one of Rasmus, Gose, or prospect DJ Davis.
Range: Could go as high as #10 to the Mets. Could fall to #30 to the Rangers.
Projected Pick: #19 to the Reds
Jay's Thoughts: They'll look at him but will decide that need at other positions + lack of upside means they should go in a different direction.
6) Aaron Nola - RHP - LSU:
Aaron Nola was previously selected by the Blue Jays in the 22nd round in 2011. However, he decided not to sign and instead has spent the last three seasons in the SEC for the LSU Tigers. Perhaps the safest pick of the draft, Aaron Nola has a good chance to be selected before the Jays pick. Although considered by many safe, Aaron Nola still has a chance to turn into a #2 starter. Think Michael Wacha. He throws a fastball that could end hitting 94, but sits low 90's. This pitch has good movement and projects above average. His best pitch is the curve which should develop into his strike out pitch. He also throws a change that should end up above average. With good command, and a good demeanor on the mound, the only concern for Nola would have to be his delivery which is almost a side arm. Expect him to be the first player to make the show and be confident you got a back end starter at the least.
Range: Could go as high as #4 to the Cubs or as low as #10 to the Mets.
Projected Pick: #7 to the Phillies.
Jay's Thoughts: If he somehow makes it, I think they are tempted to take him, however, the Jays traditionally like high upside players, and while I personally think Nola could end up a #2, he is likely a #4 starter.
5) Grant Holmes - RHP - Conway HS (S.C.):
Grant Holmes may have some of the best stuff in the entire class. Generously listed at 6'2" 190 lbs, Holmes has a stocky build. He is perhaps the most complete HS pitcher in the draft. His fastball reaches mid 90's and his curveball is a definite plus pitch. His changeup will also likely end up being a plus pitch. He has a clean and simple delivery but can get long, and he has a knack for throwing strikes. He looks like a top end of the rotation starter, however, what scares some off is that he has little projection for a HS pitcher. However, I can't see him falling far as his repertoire of 3 plus pitches, along with his strike throwing ability should see him drafted fairly early. This is a player the Jays could fall in love with.
Range: Could go as high as #6 to Mariners, or fall to the Rays at #20.
Projected Pick: #14 to the Giants.
Jay's Thoughts: Grant Holmes will be a player the Jays heavily consider. I think he is one of the 4 most likely players to end up a Blue Jay on draft day. However, the Jays have at least two players available to them ranked higher.
4) Sean Newcomb - LHP - Hartford:
Sean Newcomb is perhaps the drafts highest riser at this point. I usually like to stay away from players with helium heading into the draft but Newcomb is a personal favourite of mine. If I had my way, he would be my selection for the Jays at #9. Although a college pitcher, I would say he is perhaps one of the highest ceiling college pitchers there are. His level of competition at Hartford sucks, but when you watch him pitch you can see why he's rising. His fastball sits 92-94, however it can touch 97 and I wouldn't be surprised if he adds a tick or two. He also has a slider that breaks late and should devastate LH batters. I believe changeup, while most see it as an average pitch, could become just more than an average pitch. I think it could eventually reach plus. He needs to limit his walks, but should be able to. We could see Newcomb in the Majors by 2016 and when he gets there don't be surprised if he is a #2 starter. At worst, he is a great reliever.
Range: Could go as high as #5 to the Twins or fall to Angels at #15.
Projected Pick: #10 to the Mets.
Jay's Thoughts: They'll look at him and he'll be in the discussion, but if Hoffman is still on the board, expect them to go Hoffman and then High School player/College batter.
3) Trea Turner - SS - NC State:
Trea Turner has been linked to the Jays non-stop, with Alex Anthopolous going to see him play in a game. If the Jays do go batter, I think Turner may be at the top of the list. He has been one of college baseballs best players this year, and he projects to stay at SS and provide above average D. However, although he has been lighting up college opposition, don't expect the bat to translate to the MLB. He makes excellent contact, and doesn't strike out. His bat speed, however, leaves a bit to be desired, and don't expect him to ever hit over 10 HR's in a season. Usually, that would be forgivable if he hit doubles and triples, but expect him to be a singles machine. His saving grace is that he possesses some of the best speed in the draft, however, some scouts have become a little concerned as they believe that speed has dropped from an 80 to a 70. At best he's a leadoff hitter with excellent OBP, base running ability, and above average D at a premium position. At worst, he's Dee Gordon before this year.
Range: Could go as high as #6 to the Mariners or as low as #13 to the Padres who are said to be enamored with him.
Projected Pick: #13 to Padres.
Jay's Thoughts: He will be heavily considered. If they choose to go bat over pitcher he will be their pick. However, I think their emphasis on arms in drafts, along with the fact that they rate two pitchers ahead of him, will lead them to pass.
2) Jeff Hoffman - RHP - East Carolina:
Before his injury and subsequent Tommy John surgery, Jeff Hoffman was a lock for the top 5, and a contender for #1. However, with his injury, expect him to take on the role of Lucas Giolito from a couple years ago. He may have the best stuff among pitchers, and will fall to a team willing to take a risk. Whoever selects him will also likely save money to be used towards later picks. This is a strategy the Jays have employed in the past, and even though they like HS arms because of upside. I find it hard to believe they'd pass on a pitcher of his caliber if he fell to them. Hoffman has #1 upside. A fastball that is perhaps the best among college players, it sits 95 easily and will hit high 90's on occasion. As good as his fastball is, his curve is his money maker. It is an absolute hammer that will get tons of swings and misses and that will be hard for hitters to pick up. He also features a change that should become above average and a slider that projects as nothing more than average. He has a good delivery and should be able to repeat it, however, he does struggle with command and is prone to missed locations.
Range: Could go as high as #5 to the Twins or fall to the Nationals at #18.
Projected Pick: #11 to the Blue Jays
Jay's Thoughts: This is a player who has been linked to the Jays ever since his injury. With two picks in the top 11 they can afford to gamble on a player who could become an ace. With the high success of TJ, it should be a no brainer as they will also save money for later picks.
1) Touki Toussaint - RHP - Coral Springs HS (Fla.):
Perhaps no player outside the top 3 has been as synonymous with a team as Touki Toussaint has been with the Jays. And is it any surprise? Touki is just the kind of player that makes Alex Anthopolous salivate, and that makes the Jays one of the easier to predict teams when it comes to the draft. Athletic, projectable high school kid with absolutely electric stuff. That is Touki Toussaint in a nut shell. If Jeff Hoffman has the best curveball among college pitchers, Toussaint has the best among high school players. It is absolutely ridiculous, hitting mid 80's and will give all batters fits. His fastball is a plus pitch also as it will sit mid 90's and can reach high 90's. He also has a changeup but it needs more work. Toussaint's biggest issue is his control, however, he has improved over the last year. He also has a delivery that can get a little violent and that he needs to repeat better. His ceiling is that of a #2, and his floor should be that of a closer in the mold of a Neftali Feliz, K-Rod mold.
Range: Could go as high as Philly at #7, won't get past Padres at #13 who are apparently in love.
Projected Pick: #9 to the Blue Jays.
Jay's Thoughts: Touki is the type of player that the Jays love. I'd be mildly shocked if he wasn't one of the picks unless for whatever reason they like Trea Turner or a mystery prospect more, or if they're unwilling to take the risk on Hoffman. Chances he's a Jay after draft day have to be close to 50%.
Anyways, there it is. My Top 10 prospects the Jays could draft. Of course there are others they could select if they fall in their laps such as Nick Gordon, or if they go off the board with someone we don't suspect. Before I go here are 3 players they could reach for.
1) Sean Reid-Foley - P - Sandalwood HS (Fla.)
He should go mid early to mid 20's but apparently the Jays like him. A 2 pitch pitcher who if he develops a 3rd could be a mid rotation guy.
2) Jacob Gatewood - SS - Clovis HS (Cali.)
Boom or Bust as you're going to get. Has the most raw power of perhaps any prospect. However, he may never get close to the majors and will likely have to move to 3rd. Should go in the 20's to 30's.
3) Luis Ortiz - RHP - Sanger HS (Cali.)
Coming off an injury that has dropped his stock. Before injury was a possible top 10 pick. He should go in the late 1st round or comp round, but he could be a massive steal as he has very good stuff.
*Keith Law in his latest mock states the Jays like Canadian outfielder Gareth Morgan. However, notes that he'd be a massive overdraft. I think if he's there in the 2nd, he is a likely pick, however, he only has 1 tool right now, which is massive power, but if he learns to make better contact could be a great DH or play 1B or corner OF and be a defensive liability.
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