The MLB draft begins tonight at 6pm Eastern time. This is one of my favourite times of year! Its where young men's hard work pays off and where we learn our favourite teams future stars. As George W. Bush would say, it's where wings take dream!
*In previous feature I gave projected picks, however this stuff changes day to day so some picks in mock will be different.
#1: Houston Astro's - Brady Aiken/ LHP/ Cathedral HS (Cali)
This pick really comes down to Aiken and Carlos Rodon. Rodon was a lock for #1 coming into the year but a slow start had scouts cooling off. Many believe Aiken has the best stuff in the entire class. Projects as a top of the rotation guy.
#2: Miami Marlins - Carlos Rodon/ LHP/ NC State
I really can't see Miami passing up on Rodon. He is the best player available, has the drafts best pitch with an 80's slider, and is Cuban-American. Apparently Jeffrey Loria wants him badly.
#3: Chicago White Sox - Tyler Kolek/ RHP/ Shepherd HS (Texas)
There has been some talk of possibly Aaron Nola, however, you can't turn down this kind of potential for a guy who, while talented, probably ends up a #3 or #4 starter. He has the best fastball in draft, reaches 100 easy.
#4: Chicago Cubs - Michael Conforto/ OF/ Oregon State
Here is where things get interesting. The could go any number of ways in order to save money and spend it on prospects who fall. Conforto is the safest bat, however, expect Max Pentecost to get a long look as well as Alex Jackson.
#5: Minnesota Twins - Nick Gordon/ SS/ Olympia HS (Fla.)
This is probably the biggest lock of the draft unless Rodon or Aiken somehow fall. The Twins have been all over the son of Flash Gordon and brother of Dee. He's a true SS who projects to have a plus bat and good defense. Should be an All-Star
#6: Seattle Mariners - Trea Turner/ SS/ NC State
The first major surprise! The Mariners are always one of the harder teams to get a read on. They have been linked with Alex Jackson a lot, however, I just see them taking a surprise pick a Trea Turner seems to be someone they'd like. His speed will play as will his plate discipline. He may never be more than a singles and doubles hitter, but if he hits for average he could be the perfect place setter for Robinson Cano at the top of the lineup.
#7: Philadelphia Phillies - Aaron Nola/ RHP/ LSU
Easily the safest pick of the entire draft, I don't think there's anyway Nola falls past Philly. The two have been linked the entire process. First starter to the majors.
#8: Colorado Rockies - Alex Jackson/ C/ Rancho Bernardo HS (Cali.)
And so ends the fall of Alex Jackson. This is excellent value as the Rockies get the best hitting catcher in the draft. He has plus power and a good bat. He may have to move to the outfield. If he stays behind the plate he will probably be a top 3 hitting catcher within 5 years.
#9: Toronto Blue Jays - Max Pentecost/ C/ Kennesaw State
The Jays have been linked with Touki Toussaint the entire process. However, I just don't think they go more than pitcher this draft after going pitcher so heavily in last years draft. Pentecost is the best all around C in the draft. Should hit for a good average and hit 15-20 HR a year. Could sign underslot.
#10: New York Mets - Sean Newcomb/ LHP/ Hartford
One of my favourite prospects and one of the fastest risers, expect Newcomb to reach the majors fairly quickly and do so as a #2 or #3. Played against weak competition but that shouldn't matter as he began throwing more strikes and has good stuff that'll make batters miss at the next level. Could rise as high as #3.
#11: Toronto Blue Jays - Jeff Hoffman/ RHP/ East Carolina
The only reason the Jays don't take Toussaint is because they rate Hoffman higher. He has a slightly better ceiling, is safer, and is closer. He has a great fastball and a deadly curveball like Toussaint. I think the Jays lean Hoffman as he'll cost less and because he's more polished.
#12: Milwaukee Brewers - Kyle Freeland/ LHP/ Evansville
Haven't seen them linked to Freeland, but I don't think they expected him to fall. They need to stock their prospect cupboard and Freeland offers a safe pick despite weak opponents.
#13: San Diego Padres - Touki Toussaint/ RHP/ Coral Springs
The Whales Vagina Padres are said to be enamored with Toussaint. Understandable, and this is probably the furthest he'll fall.
#14: San Francisco Giants - Grant Holmes/ RHP/ Conway HS (S.C.)
Grant Holmes offers top 5 stuff and a mature frame. He is probably one of the two safest high school pitchers. Giants will benefit as he falls into their lap. Only downside is he's maxed out physically. What you see is what you'll get.
#15: LA Angels - Bradley Zimmer/ OF/ San Francisco
The Angels have had success selecting toolsy outfielders in the past, why not try again. He will stick in CF and has a chance to develop a plus bat, and above average running speed. He could be a 25 HR 25 SB guy with good defense in a premium spot.
#16: Arizona Diamondbacks - Jacob Gatewood/ SS/ Clovis HS (Cali.)
Some would consider this a reach, however, if Gatewood develops he has perhaps the most power in the draft. The ball flies out of Arizona. It seems a fit. We'll need to move to 3B.
#17: Kansas City Royals - Tyler Beede/ RHP/ Vanderbilt
Months ago was a top 5 pick. Control issues, however, have caused him to drop. I think KC wants a bat here, but I also think they like Beede.
#18: Washington Nationals - Erik Fedde/ RHP/ UNLV
Had a Newcomb like rise before his injury except higher. Has been linked to the Nationals who might pull what they did with Giolito and draft him for the upside he provides. Jeff Hoffman would be in play if he fell as should Brandon Finnegan.
#19: Cincinnati Reds - Sean Reid-Foley/ RHP/ Sandalwood HS (Fla.)
Has been linked to the Reds throughout the process. A 2 pitch guy who can be a #3 if he develops another pitch. If not, a high leverage bullpen arm is likely.
#20: Tampa Bay Rays - Kyle Schwarber/ C/ Indiana
Tampa wants a bat, Kyle Schwarber is the best left on my board and probably theirs.
#21: Cleveland Indians - Derek Hill/ OF/ Elk Grove HS
With 3 picks in the next 17 selections, expect them to take best player regardless. Derek Hill is that guy. Likely ends up in CF, has a great arm, will provide good D. Not a HR hitter, but should hit a lot of doubles. Downside is his low upside. If he can't develop his bat, he's a AAAA guy.
#22: LA Dodgers - Derek Fisher/ OF/ Virginia
Should have gone higher. Dodgers could use another OF as Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier will likely be gone soon. All about the bat. Could be a 30 HR guy. Question is where he plays D. Limited to LF.
#23: Detroit Tigers - Nick Burdi/ RHP/ Louisville
The Tigers love flamethrowers, Nick Burdi is that. There have been links between player and team.
#24: Pittsburgh Pirates - Luis Ortiz/ RHP/ Sanger HS (Cali.)
BPA and on my board its Luis Ortiz who's number 14. I feel its the same for the Pirates.
#25: Oakland Athletics - Tiquan Forbes/ SS/ Colombia HS (Miss)
They have been linked the entire process. If he gets there he's gone. Projects to be above average with the bat and in the field. Will likely move to 3B.
#26: Boston Red Sox - Justus Sheffield/ LHP/ Tullahoma
Justus Sheffield has a very good feel for pitching. I think Boston has him highly rated. However, the same is true for Gillaspie. I think they go for the pitcher and the upside.
#27: St. Louis Cardinals - Casey Gillaspie/ 1B/ Witchita St
I think the Cardinals play it safe and go for the best bat left on the board. Could also try Alex Blandino
Best 10 not yet drafted:
Monte Harrison - OF
Brandon Finnegan - LHP
Michael Chavis - 3B
Braxton Davidson - OF
Mac Marshall - LHP
Kodi Medeiros - LHP
Michael Gettys - OF
Scott Blewett - RHP
Dylan Cease - RHP
Forrest Wall - 2B
Thursday, 5 June 2014
Living La Vida Loup(a)
Aaron Motherf***in Loup! Man what a performance that was! For those of you who do not know, Aaron Loup is good. Very good. He has without a doubt been the Jays most consistent bullpen arm along with Janssen the last 3 years, perhaps their most consistent player not named Bautista or Encarnacion. Yesterday, he showed us all again, why he is the man to go to in high leverage situations.
Coming in after Detroit loaded the bases with none out and the Blue Jays holding a 1 run lead, Aaron Loup did what Aaron Loup get's paid to do. He got 3 quick outs while not allowing any run's. He did so by striking out pinch hitter J.D. Martinez, forcing Rajai Davis to pop up behind home plate, and jamming Ian Kinsler and inducing a weak pop fly to Edwin Encarnacion in foul territory on the 1st base side. However he wasn't done there as he came out for 1 more inning forcing a double play off the bat of Victor Martinez after Loup had surrendered a walk to Miguel Cabrera. He then promptly got Tori Hunter on a ground out. With that his day was done. With those two innings Aaron Loup registered a WPA (Win Probability Added) of +.469, the third highest of any reliever in 2014.
Aaron Loup had an awesome +.469 WPA today. Third highest for any reliever in 2014 (highest in AL). http://t.co/apUyK6EeRP
— Minor Leaguer (@Minor_Leaguer) June 5, 2014
This is starting to become the expected for Aaron Loup. He has been absolutely dominant. Casey Janssen has been getting all the attention, and rightfully so as he's been dominant, but Aaron Loup has been better. Since May 5th, a month ago to today, Aaron Loup has pitched 15 innings. In those 15 innings he has allowed an absolutely ridiculous 9 H, 5 BB, 13 K, 0 ER, 0 R. The man has been an ice cold killer and its time more took notice.
The question I want to ask is do you think Aaron Loup should be Casey Janssen's successor as the closer? Janssen is 32 and will likely be re-signed. However, as he declines and Aaron Loup enters his prime, Loup will likely be the more valuable pitcher. Does this mean he should be the closer? Well the entire idea of a closer is pretty stupid. If I am a manager I want my best pitcher pitching in the highest leverage situations, not just being reserved for the 9th inning where you may have built a 2 or 3 run lead and have nobody on base. You'd want your best pitcher in a situation like Loup was in last night, bases loaded, nobody out with 1 run lead against a team your battling for AL supremacy. Last night he was. Aaron Loup is that pitcher. I like him just where he is and so should everyone else. Aaron Loup is an elite bullpen arm and judging by his consistency over three seasons, he should stay that way.
Tuesday, 3 June 2014
Draft Dreaming - 10 prospects the Jays could draft
The MLB draft is a weird animal. While all drafts are pretty boring to watch (seriously, why the fuck do we tune in to wait 10 minutes to hear a name called) the MLB draft is easily the worst of them for TV. Before a couple years ago, we were lucky to get to see more than a couple prospects actually show up in studio, and still you get no more than 7 or 8.
Also contributing to the weirdness of the draft is that it probably has the highest percentage of top prospects who won't make it to the show. The MLB draft more than any other has historically been a crap shoot. Scouts will put years into watching prospects and think they have a gem, but if that player burns out, there probably won't be a great deal of surprise. Now of course, this rate of busts has gone down a significant amount in the last 5-10 years (don't have specific numbers) as new ways of scouting players has developed. Specifically the increased presence of sabermetrics in front offices which when paired with the traditional 'by the eye' type scouting will yield more accurate results. (Don't let that shit show movie Trouble with the Curve tell you otherwise, advanced stats and old school scouting CAN get along.)
Anyways, while the draft may be boring TV this is a great and exciting time of year as fans will discover which players will be added to their stable of prospects that will comprise their teams future, or at the least provide valuable trade currency. This year, as a result of failing to sign Phil Bickford, the Blue Jays will have two early picks at #9 and #11. Were going to examine 10 prospects who could go to the Blue Jays with these picks.
First, lets eliminate some prospects. These 5 prospects will almost assuredly not be around when Toronto picks: Brady Aiken, Carlos Rodon, Tyler Kolek, Alex Jackson, and Nick Gordon. Here are 10 prospects that the Blue Jays could look to select. Also, I may add in a few potential reaches just because.
10) Tyler Beede - RHP - Vanderbilt University:
God, imagine if we took Young Beedah? A somewhat obnoxious player, but one who is undeniably talented, Tyler Beede could be in the discussion for one of the Jays top 2 picks. I mean, I seriously doubt it, but it wouldn't be the most shocking thing this club has ever done. Alex Anthopolous was asked about the prospect of selecting Tyler Beede and confirmed that he has signed a consent to re-select form and that he would consider drafting him again. However, what else would he say? "We selected him, offered him all the money, and he spurned us because he's a little prick."? No, I just don't see it happening. I don't actually know if the Jays-Beede relationship is that soured regardless, Tyler Beede has seen is stock drop significantly after being considered a top 5 pick for most of the year. He may even fall out of the first completely. If he's around in the 2nd when the Jays pick, which would be a shock if he was, then I think they would consider him if he was truly the best player left on their board.
As for the scouting report, Keith Law of ESPN (Insiders) describes Beede as having a fastball that sits in the low 90's, occasionally touching 96 and says that he has a curveball that flashes plus and an average change. While definitely talented, Tyler Beede has seen his stock drop over control and makeup concerns. Worst case for Beede is probably a MLB reliever while his ceiling is that of a #3 starter.
Range: Could go as high as #8 to Rockies, could fall to #33 with the Red Sox.
Projected Pick: #17 to the Royals.
Jay's Thoughts: Avoid unless he's there in 2nd and you have the money to sign him.
9) Kyle Freeland - LHP - Evansville:
Kyle Freeland has absolutely dominated the Missouri Valley Conference this season putting up an insane numbers to the tune of 128 K's to 13 BB in 99.1 IP. Regardless, I think Freeland may be an overdraft this year. In reality I think he's around 20-25 among prospects but he should go in the top 10. His medical history (arthroscopic elbow surgery in high school) could be a concern for some teams, but it shouldn't. He hasn't faced the best competition, which contributes to his gaudy numbers, but he does project to have 3 above average pitches. His fastball sits around 90 with the ability to reach 94-95. He has two different sliders which are his best pitches. His change is just average but has the makings of an above average pitch. He will top out as a #4 starter, but may be one of the 5 fastest guys to make it to the majors.
Range: Could go as high as #6 to Seattle, or fall as low as 21 to the Cleveland Baseball team.
Projected Pick: #8 to the Rockies, he is often connected with them.
Jay's Thoughts: Don't expect him to last, and even if he did the fact he's a college arm in a weak conference with only back end stuff will make him a non choice.
8) Max Pentecost - C - Kennesaw State:
The case of Max Pentecost is an interesting one. He is a talent to be sure, but one that I'd deem worthy of a pick between 15-25. However, if all the rumours linking him to the Cubs turn out to be true, he could be off the board long before the Jays ever select. What Pentecost offers to teams will be awfully tempting. He is the best all-around catcher in the draft, and has the potential to develop into a solid OBP player who can hit 15-20 HR's a year. Mixed with his great defense and an ability to stick at C long term, a team could draft him inside the top 10, get him at a discount, and spend that money on prospects who fall due to strong college commitments. Even if he is a reach in the top 10, you can still feel safe you have a long term starter who has the potential to play in a couple All-Star games in his career. His competition faced at Kennesaw State may be suspect, but one of the highest floors in the draft class, at the C position, represents an appealing target for the Jays.
Range: Could go as high as #4 to Cubs or as low as #16 to Arizona.
Projected Pick: #12 to the Brewers who's farm could use a good bet to be a sure thing.
Jay's Thoughts: He will be highly appealing in a system that underwhelms at the C position. He'll be one of their top 5 choices at #9 and #11.
7) Derek Hill - OF - Elk Grove HS (Cali):
Derek Hill will likely be the highest rated High School bat left around the time the Jays select. Keith Law has already made a connection between player and franchise calling him a dark horse. Derek Hill is one of the better defenders in the outfield. With good instincts, a strong arm, and a plus runner, he is a good bet to end up in CF. Hill is much more of a doubles hitter than a HR hitter, and he projects to about a 40 on the 20-80 scale for power. While his dependable defense at a premium position provides value, the bat likely won't be there for a while if at all. If it is he could be a leadoff hitter who provides good defense and 20-30 stolen bases. If he doesn't develop a bat he is likely a AAAA player. Son of former minor league player and current scout Orsino Hill, expect the Jays to look at him, because if they feel they can fix his swing, he could be the successor to Jose Reyes at the top of the order. However, they may feel they have the answer in CF with one of Rasmus, Gose, or prospect DJ Davis.
Range: Could go as high as #10 to the Mets. Could fall to #30 to the Rangers.
Projected Pick: #19 to the Reds
Jay's Thoughts: They'll look at him but will decide that need at other positions + lack of upside means they should go in a different direction.
6) Aaron Nola - RHP - LSU:
Aaron Nola was previously selected by the Blue Jays in the 22nd round in 2011. However, he decided not to sign and instead has spent the last three seasons in the SEC for the LSU Tigers. Perhaps the safest pick of the draft, Aaron Nola has a good chance to be selected before the Jays pick. Although considered by many safe, Aaron Nola still has a chance to turn into a #2 starter. Think Michael Wacha. He throws a fastball that could end hitting 94, but sits low 90's. This pitch has good movement and projects above average. His best pitch is the curve which should develop into his strike out pitch. He also throws a change that should end up above average. With good command, and a good demeanor on the mound, the only concern for Nola would have to be his delivery which is almost a side arm. Expect him to be the first player to make the show and be confident you got a back end starter at the least.
Range: Could go as high as #4 to the Cubs or as low as #10 to the Mets.
Projected Pick: #7 to the Phillies.
Jay's Thoughts: If he somehow makes it, I think they are tempted to take him, however, the Jays traditionally like high upside players, and while I personally think Nola could end up a #2, he is likely a #4 starter.
5) Grant Holmes - RHP - Conway HS (S.C.):
Grant Holmes may have some of the best stuff in the entire class. Generously listed at 6'2" 190 lbs, Holmes has a stocky build. He is perhaps the most complete HS pitcher in the draft. His fastball reaches mid 90's and his curveball is a definite plus pitch. His changeup will also likely end up being a plus pitch. He has a clean and simple delivery but can get long, and he has a knack for throwing strikes. He looks like a top end of the rotation starter, however, what scares some off is that he has little projection for a HS pitcher. However, I can't see him falling far as his repertoire of 3 plus pitches, along with his strike throwing ability should see him drafted fairly early. This is a player the Jays could fall in love with.
Range: Could go as high as #6 to Mariners, or fall to the Rays at #20.
Projected Pick: #14 to the Giants.
Jay's Thoughts: Grant Holmes will be a player the Jays heavily consider. I think he is one of the 4 most likely players to end up a Blue Jay on draft day. However, the Jays have at least two players available to them ranked higher.
4) Sean Newcomb - LHP - Hartford:
Sean Newcomb is perhaps the drafts highest riser at this point. I usually like to stay away from players with helium heading into the draft but Newcomb is a personal favourite of mine. If I had my way, he would be my selection for the Jays at #9. Although a college pitcher, I would say he is perhaps one of the highest ceiling college pitchers there are. His level of competition at Hartford sucks, but when you watch him pitch you can see why he's rising. His fastball sits 92-94, however it can touch 97 and I wouldn't be surprised if he adds a tick or two. He also has a slider that breaks late and should devastate LH batters. I believe changeup, while most see it as an average pitch, could become just more than an average pitch. I think it could eventually reach plus. He needs to limit his walks, but should be able to. We could see Newcomb in the Majors by 2016 and when he gets there don't be surprised if he is a #2 starter. At worst, he is a great reliever.
Range: Could go as high as #5 to the Twins or fall to Angels at #15.
Projected Pick: #10 to the Mets.
Jay's Thoughts: They'll look at him and he'll be in the discussion, but if Hoffman is still on the board, expect them to go Hoffman and then High School player/College batter.
3) Trea Turner - SS - NC State:
Trea Turner has been linked to the Jays non-stop, with Alex Anthopolous going to see him play in a game. If the Jays do go batter, I think Turner may be at the top of the list. He has been one of college baseballs best players this year, and he projects to stay at SS and provide above average D. However, although he has been lighting up college opposition, don't expect the bat to translate to the MLB. He makes excellent contact, and doesn't strike out. His bat speed, however, leaves a bit to be desired, and don't expect him to ever hit over 10 HR's in a season. Usually, that would be forgivable if he hit doubles and triples, but expect him to be a singles machine. His saving grace is that he possesses some of the best speed in the draft, however, some scouts have become a little concerned as they believe that speed has dropped from an 80 to a 70. At best he's a leadoff hitter with excellent OBP, base running ability, and above average D at a premium position. At worst, he's Dee Gordon before this year.
Range: Could go as high as #6 to the Mariners or as low as #13 to the Padres who are said to be enamored with him.
Projected Pick: #13 to Padres.
Jay's Thoughts: He will be heavily considered. If they choose to go bat over pitcher he will be their pick. However, I think their emphasis on arms in drafts, along with the fact that they rate two pitchers ahead of him, will lead them to pass.
2) Jeff Hoffman - RHP - East Carolina:
Before his injury and subsequent Tommy John surgery, Jeff Hoffman was a lock for the top 5, and a contender for #1. However, with his injury, expect him to take on the role of Lucas Giolito from a couple years ago. He may have the best stuff among pitchers, and will fall to a team willing to take a risk. Whoever selects him will also likely save money to be used towards later picks. This is a strategy the Jays have employed in the past, and even though they like HS arms because of upside. I find it hard to believe they'd pass on a pitcher of his caliber if he fell to them. Hoffman has #1 upside. A fastball that is perhaps the best among college players, it sits 95 easily and will hit high 90's on occasion. As good as his fastball is, his curve is his money maker. It is an absolute hammer that will get tons of swings and misses and that will be hard for hitters to pick up. He also features a change that should become above average and a slider that projects as nothing more than average. He has a good delivery and should be able to repeat it, however, he does struggle with command and is prone to missed locations.
Range: Could go as high as #5 to the Twins or fall to the Nationals at #18.
Projected Pick: #11 to the Blue Jays
Jay's Thoughts: This is a player who has been linked to the Jays ever since his injury. With two picks in the top 11 they can afford to gamble on a player who could become an ace. With the high success of TJ, it should be a no brainer as they will also save money for later picks.
1) Touki Toussaint - RHP - Coral Springs HS (Fla.):
Perhaps no player outside the top 3 has been as synonymous with a team as Touki Toussaint has been with the Jays. And is it any surprise? Touki is just the kind of player that makes Alex Anthopolous salivate, and that makes the Jays one of the easier to predict teams when it comes to the draft. Athletic, projectable high school kid with absolutely electric stuff. That is Touki Toussaint in a nut shell. If Jeff Hoffman has the best curveball among college pitchers, Toussaint has the best among high school players. It is absolutely ridiculous, hitting mid 80's and will give all batters fits. His fastball is a plus pitch also as it will sit mid 90's and can reach high 90's. He also has a changeup but it needs more work. Toussaint's biggest issue is his control, however, he has improved over the last year. He also has a delivery that can get a little violent and that he needs to repeat better. His ceiling is that of a #2, and his floor should be that of a closer in the mold of a Neftali Feliz, K-Rod mold.
Range: Could go as high as Philly at #7, won't get past Padres at #13 who are apparently in love.
Projected Pick: #9 to the Blue Jays.
Jay's Thoughts: Touki is the type of player that the Jays love. I'd be mildly shocked if he wasn't one of the picks unless for whatever reason they like Trea Turner or a mystery prospect more, or if they're unwilling to take the risk on Hoffman. Chances he's a Jay after draft day have to be close to 50%.
Anyways, there it is. My Top 10 prospects the Jays could draft. Of course there are others they could select if they fall in their laps such as Nick Gordon, or if they go off the board with someone we don't suspect. Before I go here are 3 players they could reach for.
1) Sean Reid-Foley - P - Sandalwood HS (Fla.)
He should go mid early to mid 20's but apparently the Jays like him. A 2 pitch pitcher who if he develops a 3rd could be a mid rotation guy.
2) Jacob Gatewood - SS - Clovis HS (Cali.)
Boom or Bust as you're going to get. Has the most raw power of perhaps any prospect. However, he may never get close to the majors and will likely have to move to 3rd. Should go in the 20's to 30's.
3) Luis Ortiz - RHP - Sanger HS (Cali.)
Coming off an injury that has dropped his stock. Before injury was a possible top 10 pick. He should go in the late 1st round or comp round, but he could be a massive steal as he has very good stuff.
*Keith Law in his latest mock states the Jays like Canadian outfielder Gareth Morgan. However, notes that he'd be a massive overdraft. I think if he's there in the 2nd, he is a likely pick, however, he only has 1 tool right now, which is massive power, but if he learns to make better contact could be a great DH or play 1B or corner OF and be a defensive liability.
Also contributing to the weirdness of the draft is that it probably has the highest percentage of top prospects who won't make it to the show. The MLB draft more than any other has historically been a crap shoot. Scouts will put years into watching prospects and think they have a gem, but if that player burns out, there probably won't be a great deal of surprise. Now of course, this rate of busts has gone down a significant amount in the last 5-10 years (don't have specific numbers) as new ways of scouting players has developed. Specifically the increased presence of sabermetrics in front offices which when paired with the traditional 'by the eye' type scouting will yield more accurate results. (Don't let that shit show movie Trouble with the Curve tell you otherwise, advanced stats and old school scouting CAN get along.)
Anyways, while the draft may be boring TV this is a great and exciting time of year as fans will discover which players will be added to their stable of prospects that will comprise their teams future, or at the least provide valuable trade currency. This year, as a result of failing to sign Phil Bickford, the Blue Jays will have two early picks at #9 and #11. Were going to examine 10 prospects who could go to the Blue Jays with these picks.
First, lets eliminate some prospects. These 5 prospects will almost assuredly not be around when Toronto picks: Brady Aiken, Carlos Rodon, Tyler Kolek, Alex Jackson, and Nick Gordon. Here are 10 prospects that the Blue Jays could look to select. Also, I may add in a few potential reaches just because.
10) Tyler Beede - RHP - Vanderbilt University:
God, imagine if we took Young Beedah? A somewhat obnoxious player, but one who is undeniably talented, Tyler Beede could be in the discussion for one of the Jays top 2 picks. I mean, I seriously doubt it, but it wouldn't be the most shocking thing this club has ever done. Alex Anthopolous was asked about the prospect of selecting Tyler Beede and confirmed that he has signed a consent to re-select form and that he would consider drafting him again. However, what else would he say? "We selected him, offered him all the money, and he spurned us because he's a little prick."? No, I just don't see it happening. I don't actually know if the Jays-Beede relationship is that soured regardless, Tyler Beede has seen is stock drop significantly after being considered a top 5 pick for most of the year. He may even fall out of the first completely. If he's around in the 2nd when the Jays pick, which would be a shock if he was, then I think they would consider him if he was truly the best player left on their board.
As for the scouting report, Keith Law of ESPN (Insiders) describes Beede as having a fastball that sits in the low 90's, occasionally touching 96 and says that he has a curveball that flashes plus and an average change. While definitely talented, Tyler Beede has seen his stock drop over control and makeup concerns. Worst case for Beede is probably a MLB reliever while his ceiling is that of a #3 starter.
Range: Could go as high as #8 to Rockies, could fall to #33 with the Red Sox.
Projected Pick: #17 to the Royals.
Jay's Thoughts: Avoid unless he's there in 2nd and you have the money to sign him.
9) Kyle Freeland - LHP - Evansville:
Kyle Freeland has absolutely dominated the Missouri Valley Conference this season putting up an insane numbers to the tune of 128 K's to 13 BB in 99.1 IP. Regardless, I think Freeland may be an overdraft this year. In reality I think he's around 20-25 among prospects but he should go in the top 10. His medical history (arthroscopic elbow surgery in high school) could be a concern for some teams, but it shouldn't. He hasn't faced the best competition, which contributes to his gaudy numbers, but he does project to have 3 above average pitches. His fastball sits around 90 with the ability to reach 94-95. He has two different sliders which are his best pitches. His change is just average but has the makings of an above average pitch. He will top out as a #4 starter, but may be one of the 5 fastest guys to make it to the majors.
Range: Could go as high as #6 to Seattle, or fall as low as 21 to the Cleveland Baseball team.
Projected Pick: #8 to the Rockies, he is often connected with them.
Jay's Thoughts: Don't expect him to last, and even if he did the fact he's a college arm in a weak conference with only back end stuff will make him a non choice.
8) Max Pentecost - C - Kennesaw State:
The case of Max Pentecost is an interesting one. He is a talent to be sure, but one that I'd deem worthy of a pick between 15-25. However, if all the rumours linking him to the Cubs turn out to be true, he could be off the board long before the Jays ever select. What Pentecost offers to teams will be awfully tempting. He is the best all-around catcher in the draft, and has the potential to develop into a solid OBP player who can hit 15-20 HR's a year. Mixed with his great defense and an ability to stick at C long term, a team could draft him inside the top 10, get him at a discount, and spend that money on prospects who fall due to strong college commitments. Even if he is a reach in the top 10, you can still feel safe you have a long term starter who has the potential to play in a couple All-Star games in his career. His competition faced at Kennesaw State may be suspect, but one of the highest floors in the draft class, at the C position, represents an appealing target for the Jays.
Range: Could go as high as #4 to Cubs or as low as #16 to Arizona.
Projected Pick: #12 to the Brewers who's farm could use a good bet to be a sure thing.
Jay's Thoughts: He will be highly appealing in a system that underwhelms at the C position. He'll be one of their top 5 choices at #9 and #11.
7) Derek Hill - OF - Elk Grove HS (Cali):
Derek Hill will likely be the highest rated High School bat left around the time the Jays select. Keith Law has already made a connection between player and franchise calling him a dark horse. Derek Hill is one of the better defenders in the outfield. With good instincts, a strong arm, and a plus runner, he is a good bet to end up in CF. Hill is much more of a doubles hitter than a HR hitter, and he projects to about a 40 on the 20-80 scale for power. While his dependable defense at a premium position provides value, the bat likely won't be there for a while if at all. If it is he could be a leadoff hitter who provides good defense and 20-30 stolen bases. If he doesn't develop a bat he is likely a AAAA player. Son of former minor league player and current scout Orsino Hill, expect the Jays to look at him, because if they feel they can fix his swing, he could be the successor to Jose Reyes at the top of the order. However, they may feel they have the answer in CF with one of Rasmus, Gose, or prospect DJ Davis.
Range: Could go as high as #10 to the Mets. Could fall to #30 to the Rangers.
Projected Pick: #19 to the Reds
Jay's Thoughts: They'll look at him but will decide that need at other positions + lack of upside means they should go in a different direction.
6) Aaron Nola - RHP - LSU:
Aaron Nola was previously selected by the Blue Jays in the 22nd round in 2011. However, he decided not to sign and instead has spent the last three seasons in the SEC for the LSU Tigers. Perhaps the safest pick of the draft, Aaron Nola has a good chance to be selected before the Jays pick. Although considered by many safe, Aaron Nola still has a chance to turn into a #2 starter. Think Michael Wacha. He throws a fastball that could end hitting 94, but sits low 90's. This pitch has good movement and projects above average. His best pitch is the curve which should develop into his strike out pitch. He also throws a change that should end up above average. With good command, and a good demeanor on the mound, the only concern for Nola would have to be his delivery which is almost a side arm. Expect him to be the first player to make the show and be confident you got a back end starter at the least.
Range: Could go as high as #4 to the Cubs or as low as #10 to the Mets.
Projected Pick: #7 to the Phillies.
Jay's Thoughts: If he somehow makes it, I think they are tempted to take him, however, the Jays traditionally like high upside players, and while I personally think Nola could end up a #2, he is likely a #4 starter.
5) Grant Holmes - RHP - Conway HS (S.C.):
Grant Holmes may have some of the best stuff in the entire class. Generously listed at 6'2" 190 lbs, Holmes has a stocky build. He is perhaps the most complete HS pitcher in the draft. His fastball reaches mid 90's and his curveball is a definite plus pitch. His changeup will also likely end up being a plus pitch. He has a clean and simple delivery but can get long, and he has a knack for throwing strikes. He looks like a top end of the rotation starter, however, what scares some off is that he has little projection for a HS pitcher. However, I can't see him falling far as his repertoire of 3 plus pitches, along with his strike throwing ability should see him drafted fairly early. This is a player the Jays could fall in love with.
Range: Could go as high as #6 to Mariners, or fall to the Rays at #20.
Projected Pick: #14 to the Giants.
Jay's Thoughts: Grant Holmes will be a player the Jays heavily consider. I think he is one of the 4 most likely players to end up a Blue Jay on draft day. However, the Jays have at least two players available to them ranked higher.
4) Sean Newcomb - LHP - Hartford:
Sean Newcomb is perhaps the drafts highest riser at this point. I usually like to stay away from players with helium heading into the draft but Newcomb is a personal favourite of mine. If I had my way, he would be my selection for the Jays at #9. Although a college pitcher, I would say he is perhaps one of the highest ceiling college pitchers there are. His level of competition at Hartford sucks, but when you watch him pitch you can see why he's rising. His fastball sits 92-94, however it can touch 97 and I wouldn't be surprised if he adds a tick or two. He also has a slider that breaks late and should devastate LH batters. I believe changeup, while most see it as an average pitch, could become just more than an average pitch. I think it could eventually reach plus. He needs to limit his walks, but should be able to. We could see Newcomb in the Majors by 2016 and when he gets there don't be surprised if he is a #2 starter. At worst, he is a great reliever.
Range: Could go as high as #5 to the Twins or fall to Angels at #15.
Projected Pick: #10 to the Mets.
Jay's Thoughts: They'll look at him and he'll be in the discussion, but if Hoffman is still on the board, expect them to go Hoffman and then High School player/College batter.
3) Trea Turner - SS - NC State:
Trea Turner has been linked to the Jays non-stop, with Alex Anthopolous going to see him play in a game. If the Jays do go batter, I think Turner may be at the top of the list. He has been one of college baseballs best players this year, and he projects to stay at SS and provide above average D. However, although he has been lighting up college opposition, don't expect the bat to translate to the MLB. He makes excellent contact, and doesn't strike out. His bat speed, however, leaves a bit to be desired, and don't expect him to ever hit over 10 HR's in a season. Usually, that would be forgivable if he hit doubles and triples, but expect him to be a singles machine. His saving grace is that he possesses some of the best speed in the draft, however, some scouts have become a little concerned as they believe that speed has dropped from an 80 to a 70. At best he's a leadoff hitter with excellent OBP, base running ability, and above average D at a premium position. At worst, he's Dee Gordon before this year.
Range: Could go as high as #6 to the Mariners or as low as #13 to the Padres who are said to be enamored with him.
Projected Pick: #13 to Padres.
Jay's Thoughts: He will be heavily considered. If they choose to go bat over pitcher he will be their pick. However, I think their emphasis on arms in drafts, along with the fact that they rate two pitchers ahead of him, will lead them to pass.
2) Jeff Hoffman - RHP - East Carolina:
Before his injury and subsequent Tommy John surgery, Jeff Hoffman was a lock for the top 5, and a contender for #1. However, with his injury, expect him to take on the role of Lucas Giolito from a couple years ago. He may have the best stuff among pitchers, and will fall to a team willing to take a risk. Whoever selects him will also likely save money to be used towards later picks. This is a strategy the Jays have employed in the past, and even though they like HS arms because of upside. I find it hard to believe they'd pass on a pitcher of his caliber if he fell to them. Hoffman has #1 upside. A fastball that is perhaps the best among college players, it sits 95 easily and will hit high 90's on occasion. As good as his fastball is, his curve is his money maker. It is an absolute hammer that will get tons of swings and misses and that will be hard for hitters to pick up. He also features a change that should become above average and a slider that projects as nothing more than average. He has a good delivery and should be able to repeat it, however, he does struggle with command and is prone to missed locations.
Range: Could go as high as #5 to the Twins or fall to the Nationals at #18.
Projected Pick: #11 to the Blue Jays
Jay's Thoughts: This is a player who has been linked to the Jays ever since his injury. With two picks in the top 11 they can afford to gamble on a player who could become an ace. With the high success of TJ, it should be a no brainer as they will also save money for later picks.
1) Touki Toussaint - RHP - Coral Springs HS (Fla.):
Perhaps no player outside the top 3 has been as synonymous with a team as Touki Toussaint has been with the Jays. And is it any surprise? Touki is just the kind of player that makes Alex Anthopolous salivate, and that makes the Jays one of the easier to predict teams when it comes to the draft. Athletic, projectable high school kid with absolutely electric stuff. That is Touki Toussaint in a nut shell. If Jeff Hoffman has the best curveball among college pitchers, Toussaint has the best among high school players. It is absolutely ridiculous, hitting mid 80's and will give all batters fits. His fastball is a plus pitch also as it will sit mid 90's and can reach high 90's. He also has a changeup but it needs more work. Toussaint's biggest issue is his control, however, he has improved over the last year. He also has a delivery that can get a little violent and that he needs to repeat better. His ceiling is that of a #2, and his floor should be that of a closer in the mold of a Neftali Feliz, K-Rod mold.
Range: Could go as high as Philly at #7, won't get past Padres at #13 who are apparently in love.
Projected Pick: #9 to the Blue Jays.
Jay's Thoughts: Touki is the type of player that the Jays love. I'd be mildly shocked if he wasn't one of the picks unless for whatever reason they like Trea Turner or a mystery prospect more, or if they're unwilling to take the risk on Hoffman. Chances he's a Jay after draft day have to be close to 50%.
Anyways, there it is. My Top 10 prospects the Jays could draft. Of course there are others they could select if they fall in their laps such as Nick Gordon, or if they go off the board with someone we don't suspect. Before I go here are 3 players they could reach for.
1) Sean Reid-Foley - P - Sandalwood HS (Fla.)
He should go mid early to mid 20's but apparently the Jays like him. A 2 pitch pitcher who if he develops a 3rd could be a mid rotation guy.
2) Jacob Gatewood - SS - Clovis HS (Cali.)
Boom or Bust as you're going to get. Has the most raw power of perhaps any prospect. However, he may never get close to the majors and will likely have to move to 3rd. Should go in the 20's to 30's.
3) Luis Ortiz - RHP - Sanger HS (Cali.)
Coming off an injury that has dropped his stock. Before injury was a possible top 10 pick. He should go in the late 1st round or comp round, but he could be a massive steal as he has very good stuff.
*Keith Law in his latest mock states the Jays like Canadian outfielder Gareth Morgan. However, notes that he'd be a massive overdraft. I think if he's there in the 2nd, he is a likely pick, however, he only has 1 tool right now, which is massive power, but if he learns to make better contact could be a great DH or play 1B or corner OF and be a defensive liability.
Monday, 2 June 2014
Hello Friends....
I'd like to welcome you to Delgado's Dome Dwellers, a website dedicated to those of us who love two things. Watching the Toronto Blue Jays and talking about the Toronto Blue Jays. I have decided to create this website in order to bring to you all any thoughts I may have about our beloved Blue Birds, and to create and foster any and all discussion. No topic is off limits and there will be no moderation of comments except for comments deemed to be extremely racist and incredibly homophobic. However, if you think I'm an idiot, I encourage you to berate me, I can handle it. If you think I'm a genius, please say so, I always enjoy when someone strokes my ego. (Among other things...HOME RUNS GUYS!!!! Geez....)
Some of the things that will frequently be discussed are recaps and thoughts of games, prospecting, advanced stats vs. traditional, and rumors that appear to have merit. Of course, I hope over time the site will grow organically to the point where there will be more to discuss. I will also discuss other big events happening around the league, with a special focus on our AL East rivals.
I hope you all enjoy this new project of mine and I sincerely hope my writing is engaging enough where you will all become regulars.
Follow me on Twitter @justinv62
Just for the fuck of it, here have a picture of Blue Jays demi god Carlos Delgado.
Some of the things that will frequently be discussed are recaps and thoughts of games, prospecting, advanced stats vs. traditional, and rumors that appear to have merit. Of course, I hope over time the site will grow organically to the point where there will be more to discuss. I will also discuss other big events happening around the league, with a special focus on our AL East rivals.
I hope you all enjoy this new project of mine and I sincerely hope my writing is engaging enough where you will all become regulars.
Follow me on Twitter @justinv62
Just for the fuck of it, here have a picture of Blue Jays demi god Carlos Delgado.
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